In The Business World The Rearview

This metaphor appears in Buffett's 2001 Berkshire Hathaway Chairman's Letter, written in the wake of the September 11 attacks and the dot-com bust. The specific passage addressed the difficulty of forecasting in business and investing, noting that hindsight makes past decisions look obvious while forward-looking judgment always operates through an uncertain and "fogged" windshield. The letter also opened with a candid discussion of Berkshire's own mistakes in underwriting "super-cat" reinsurance, making the self-deprecating point concrete.